Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
