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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

But the latest race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers rising collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still