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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd